Noise in Judgement

'Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgement' by Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass Sunstein is one of my top recommended readings. While I'm still very much a junior behavioural scientist, as I read I found myself connecting the insights to my experiences within my own domains of expertise.

The authors make use of Pythagorean theorem and triangles to explain the relationship between different components of error within human judgement. But what I liked most were the visualisations.

I've recreated the key diagram as an interactive infographic. Clicking on a component will render a description below the diagram:

Mean Squared Error (MSE) Mean Squared Error (MSE) Mean Squared Error (MSE) Bias² Bias² System Noise² System Noise² Level Noise² Level Noise² Pattern Noise² Pattern Noise² Occasion Noise² OccasionNoise² Stable Pattern Noise² StablePattern Noise²

Sources

[book] Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgement. 2021. D Kahneman, O Sibony, C R Sunstein [Pub] Harper Collins [ISBN] 978-0-00-830903-9.

[book] Knowledge and decisions. 1996. T Sowell [Pub] Basic Books [ISBN] 978-0465037384.