Noise in Judgement

Bias²

"Bias is a disproportionate weight in favor of or against an idea or thing, usually in a way that is closed-minded, prejudicial, or unfair." - Wikipedia (2023-02-04).

In the context of human judgement, the authors of 'Noise' define bias as "the average error in judgements" or we could say the judgements are "systematically off target". I feel little elaboration is needed.

However, the term's use in discussion of modern issues needs addressing. The term tends to get thrown around in an attempt to undermine another's argument without regard to the type, extent, or source of the bias.

Firstly, and most often noted, is that we all exhibit bias. Our upbringings, incentives, culture, and feelings push us to make judgements that systematically diverge from a truly objective assessment (even if such an assessment is an impossibility).

Secondly, accusations are rarely backed up by hard evidence or evaluated from a fair baseline. Bias in judgement must be made from an empirical stand point. There must be fair measurement and comparison against an objectively derived baseline with an appropriate margin of error. I.e. an account for noise in measuring bias. Many issues of the day don't have an a coherent or agreed baseline.

Which brings me on to my final point. When you take a good look many accusations turn out to be disagreements in how we define and measure bias. As Thomas Sowell in Knowledge and decisions points out, who decides these things and how they are decided are really what determine the conclusions. If we choose wrong people and the wrong methods to make out key societal judgements then we'll end up with outcomes that are detrimental to us all.